The USD Index has been locked in a sideways pattern since early 2008, this pattern is most likely a triangle, but it could also be a very complex series of waves one's and two's. At this point it seems that all waves unfolds in three's, which will indicate that we are looking at a triangle and therefore I prefer this Count slightly above the much more bullish Count.
Looking at the triangle Count we are currently in the middle of red wave d, which should reach close to support at 75.00, before the final e wave takes over.
If we zoom in on red wave d. We have seen a three wave decline from 84.75 to 79.08, which I have labeled red wave w. The price action since the 79.08 low also has unfolded in three waves, which I have labeled red wave x and I will be looking for a new three wave decline closer to the 75.00 target in wave d. However, a break above minor resistance at 80.27 and more importantly a break above 80.35 will indicate that red wave b of the x wave became very complex and that a impulsive c wave higher towards 81.75 should be expected before the x is finally over and renewed downside pressure takes over for a decline closer to 75.00.
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