Since the early May 2011 low at 6.5200 we have seen a impulsive rally here. Not the most pretty impulsive rally, but it does apply to all of Elliott's rules.
As can be seen on the chart we are currently in black wave v (the final wave higher). Black wave v itself can be broken down into four red waves till now, which tells us we still have one final move higher to expect in red wave v. This red wave v seems to be well under way for a rally towards at least 11.3986. At 11.3986 red wave v will be 61.8% of the distance travelled from the bottom of red wave i to the top of red wave iii added to the bottom of red wave iv.
Looking at the larger count, black wave v isn't expected to end before we reach 12.0120, where black wave v will be 61.8% of the distance travelled from the bottom of black wave i to the top of black wave iii added to the bottom of black wave iv. How does that fit with the final red count? If red wave v becomes an extended wave and rallies 100% of the distances from the bottom of red wave i to the top of red wave iii and add that distance to the bottom of red wave iv, we will get a target of 12.1049 . It seems that a cluster of possible target is forming between 12.01 and 12.10.
If we look at the larger picture (see the chart below). We could be working on a new impulsive rally higher as the weekly count suggest, This count also have a possible target at 12.0352, within the cluster zoon. However, we will have consider the possibility of a huge triangle developing. If a triangle is developing, then we shouldn't expect the top at 11.3890 being broken before the final wave E takes over and a break below the support line near 10.2580 is seen.
I'm slightly in favour of the impulsive rally developing, but I will stay alert to any signs of a top before 11.3890, that would shift the odds in favour of the triangle scenario.
No matter which count proves correct, we have to painfully aware, that the on-going rally will be the last before a major decline is seen.
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