Coffee has more or less behaved like an Elliott Wave textbook chart since late April, but something out of the ordinary happened Friday last week. We saw a major gain of 5.22% and that was not what the textbook normally would have us to expect, so maybe something else than first expected is going on here.
Instead of blue wave (ii) being over at 185 in late June, it could be that it was only wave a of blue wave (ii) and the decline from 185 to 159 was b of blue wave (ii) and now we should be looking for wave c of blue wave (ii). If this is the case, then we should first of all see a break above 175, which would call for wave c higher to 191 to end blue wave (ii) and set the stages for blue wave (iii) lower to 103.
However, if resistance at 175 protects the upside for a break below support at 163, then look for a strong decline 97 in blue wave (iii).
For now we will have to stay flexible and let the market tell us, which count is correct.
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